Prediction markets bet on months of tension in the Strait of Hormuz

Photo: Şahin Doğdu · Pexels

Tension in the Middle East has escalated again. Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis have exchanged fire after Saudi air defenses intercepted an attack aimed at an oil refinery. Almost simultaneously, a Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker was attacked in Iranian waters, according to the Indian embassy. These episodes add to months of instability in one of the world's most sensitive maritime chokepoints for energy trade.

What stands out is how uncertainty is being measured. According to prediction markets cited by financial media, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to normal for twelve months or more. This kind of estimate is not an official forecast, but rather a reflection of how participants in these markets are betting on the duration of the conflict and its effects on international trade.

Slow-burn diplomacy

Amid the attacks, diplomacy keeps trying to make headway. Trump has said the United States and Iran are talking, though he noted Tehran is not yet ready to close a deal. He has also said he trusts that Russia's and China's leaders will not let Iran act unchecked, a comment that reflects how the geopolitical chessboard of this crisis involves actors well beyond the region.

Meanwhile, Pakistan and Iran are exploring, with Chinese mediation, a path toward new talks with Washington. These moves show that despite the military escalation, no relevant actor seems interested in fully closing the door on dialogue.